Hupfumi hwenyika yose huri kusangana nedambudziko guru risati ramboitika rekutengeserana kwezvinhu munguva pfupi yapfuura.
Masangano anomiririra maindasitiri ekudhinda inki munzvimbo dzakasiyana dzeEurope atsanangura mamiriro asina kugadzikana uye akaomarara enyaya dzekutengesa dziri kutarisana nechikamu ichi sezvo chiri kupinda muna 2022.
IyoSangano reEuropean Printing Ink Association (EuPIA)yakasimbisa chokwadi chekuti denda re coronavirus rakagadzira mamiriro ezvinhu akafanana nezvinhu zvinodiwa kuti pave nedutu rakanaka. Kuunganidzwa kwezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana kwava kuonekwa sekukanganisa zvakanyanya ketani yese yekugovera.
Ruzhinji rwenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi nenyanzvi dzezvekutengesa zvinhu dzine maonero ekuti hupfumi hwenyika huri kusangana nekushanduka-shanduka kwezvinhu zvisati zvamboitika munguva pfupi yapfuura. Kudiwa kwezvinhu kuri kuramba kuchidarika kuwanikwa kwezvinhu uye, nekuda kweizvozvo, kuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvepasi rose uye zvinhu zvinotakura zvinhu kwakanganiswa zvikuru.
Mamiriro ezvinhu aya, anokonzerwa nedenda repasi rose iro riri kuramba richikonzera kudzimwa kwezvigadzirwa munyika dzakawanda, akatanga awedzerwa nevatengi vanoenda kumba vachitenga zvinhu zvakawanda kupfuura zvakajairika uye kunze kwemwaka wepamusoro-soro. Chechipiri, kumutsidzirwa kwehupfumi hwepasi rose panguva imwe chete pasi rose kwakakonzera kuwedzera kwekudiwa kwezvinhu.
Matambudziko ekutengesa zvinhu anokonzerwa zvakananga nekushaikwa kwevashandi nevatyairi vemagetsi uye kushomeka kwevashandi nevatyairi zvakakonzerawo matambudziko, nepo muChina, kudzikira kwezvigadzirwa nekuda kweChinese Energy Reduction Program, uye kushomeka kwezvinhu zvakakosha zvakawedzera matambudziko eindasitiri.
Zvinonetsa Zvikuru
Kune vanogadzira inki nependi yekudhinda, kushomeka kwezvekufambisa uye zvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa kuri kukonzera matambudziko akasiyana-siyana, sezvakatsanangurwa pazasi:
• _x0007_Kusawirirana kwekugovera uye kudiwa kwezvinhu zvakawanda zvakakosha zvinoshandiswa mukugadzira inki dzekudhinda—semuenzaniso mafuta emuriwo nezvimwe zvinobva maari, petrochemicals, pigments uye TiO2—zviri kukonzera kukanganiswa kukuru kumakambani ari nhengo dzeEuPIA. Zvinhu zviri muzvikamu izvi zvese, kusvika padanho rakasiyana, zviri kuona kudiwa kwakawanda ukuwo kuwanikwa kuri kuramba kuchiderera. Kusagadzikana kwekudiwa munzvimbo idzodzo kwakonzera kuoma kwakawanda mukugona kwevatengesi kufanotaura nekuronga kutumirwa kwezvinhu.
• _x0007_Pigments, kusanganisira TiO2, dzawedzera munguva pfupi yapfuura nekuda kwekuwedzera kwekudiwa uye kudzimwa kwemafekitori muChina kwakakonzerwa neChinese Energy Reduction Program. TiO2 yakawedzera kudiwa kwekugadzirwa kwependi yezvivakwa (sezvo chikamu chepasi rose cheDIY chakawedzera zvakanyanya zvichibva pakugara kwevatengi mudzimba) uye kugadzirwa kweturbine yemhepo.
• _x0007_Kuwanikwa kwemafuta emiriwo asingashandiswi kwakanganiswa nemamiriro ekunze asina kunaka muUSA neLatin America. Zvinosuwisa kuti izvi zvakaitika pamwe chete nekutengeswa kwezvinhu kubva kuChina uye kushandiswa kwezvinhu izvi kwakawedzera.
• _x0007_Makemikoro ePetrochemicals—UV-repable, polyurethane uye acrylic resins uye solvents—ave achikwira mitengo kubva pakutanga kwegore ra2020, zvimwe zvezvinhu izvi zvichiwedzera kudiwa kwezvinhu kupfuura mazinga anotarisirwa. Uyezve, maindasitiri akaona zviitiko zvakawanda zve force majeure zvakawedzera kudzvinyirirwa kwekugadzirwa kwezvinhu uye zvakawedzera mamiriro ezvinhu asina kugadzikana.
Sezvo mitengo ichiramba ichikwira uye kuwanikwa kwezvinhu kuri kuramba kuchikwira, vagadziri veinki nependi yekudhinda vese vari kukanganiswa zvikuru nemakwikwi makuru ezvishandiso nezviwanikwa.
Zvisinei, matambudziko ari kusangana neindasitiri haasi ekungoshandisa makemikari nemafuta chete. Zvimwe zvinhu zvakaita sekurongedza, kutakurwa kwezvinhu nekutakura zvinhu, zviri kusanganawo nematambudziko.
• _x0007_Indasitiri iyi iri kuramba ichitarisana nekushomeka kwesimbi dzemadhiramu neHDPE feedstocks dzinoshandiswa mumapail nemajagi. Kuwedzera kwekudiwa kwezvishandiso mukutengeserana kwepamhepo kuri kukonzera kuwanda kwemabhokisi esimbi nemainserts. Kugoverwa kwezvinhu, kunonoka kwekugadzirwa, feedstock, force majeures uye kushomeka kwevashandi zvese zviri kukonzera kuwedzera kwekurongedza. Kudiwa kunoshamisa kuri kuramba kuchidarika kuwanikwa kwezvishandiso.
• _x0007_Denda iri rakakonzera zvinhu zvakawanda zvisingawanzoitiki zvekutenga vatengi (panguva yekuvharwa uye mushure mekuvharwa), zvichikonzera kudiwa kusingawanzoitiki mumaindasitiri akawanda uye zvichideredza simba rekutakura zvinhu mumhepo nemugungwa. Mitengo yemafuta ejeti yakawedzera pamwe chete nemari yekutakura zvinhu mumakontena (mune dzimwe nzira kubva kuAsia-Pacific kuenda kuEurope uye/kana USA, mitengo yemakontena yakawedzera ka8-10 pane zvakajairwa). Nguva dzekutakura zvinhu mugungwa dzisina kujairika dzabuda, uye vatakuri vezvinhu vari kuvharirwa kana kuti vari kuomerwa nekuwana nzvimbo dzekuburutsa zvinhu mumakontena. Kubatanidzwa kwekuwedzera kwekuda kwezvinhu nemasevhisi ekufambisa zvinhu asina kugadzirirwa zvakanaka kwakaita kuti pave nekushomeka kukuru kwekutakura zvinhu.
• _x0007_Nekuda kwedambudziko redenda, matanho akasimba ehutano nekuchengetedzeka aripo pazviteshi zvepasi rose, izvo zviri kukanganisa kugona kwezviteshi uye huwandu hwezviteshi. Zvizhinji zvezvikepe zvekutakura zvinhu mugungwa zviri kutadza kusvika panguva yakatarwa, uye zvikepe zvisingasvike nenguva zvinononoka sezvo zvichimirira nzvimbo itsva kuti dzivhurwe. Izvi zvakakonzera kuwedzera kwemitengo yekutakura zvinhu kubvira mumatsutso a2020.
• _x0007_Kune kushomeka kukuru kwevatyairi vemarori munzvimbo dzakawanda asi izvi zvave zvichinyanya kuoneka muEurope yese. Kunyangwe kushomeka uku kusiri kutsva uye kwave kuri kunetseka kwemakore angangoita gumi nemashanu, kwave kungowedzera nekuda kwedenda repasi rose.
Zvichakadaro, imwe yenhaurirano dzichangobva kubuda kubva kuBritish Coatings Federation yakaratidza kuti mukutanga kwematsutso a2021, kwaive nekuwedzera kutsva kwemitengo yezvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa kuchikanganisa zvikamu zvependi nekudhinda inki muUK, zvichireva kuti vagadziri vakanga vava kusangana nematambudziko makuru emitengo. Sezvo zvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa zvichitora 50% yemitengo yese muindasitiri, uye nedzimwe mari dzakadai sesimba dzichiwedzerawo nekukurumidza, kukanganisa kuri kuita chikamu ichi hakugone kupfuudzwa zvakanyanya.
Mitengo yemafuta ikozvino yawedzera zvakapetwa kaviri mumwedzi gumi nemiviri yapfuura uye yakwira ne250% kubva padanho repasi raKurume 2020 risati rasvika denda, zvichienzanisa nekuwedzera kukuru kwakaonekwa panguva yedambudziko remitengo yemafuta rakatungamirwa neOPEC ra1973/4 uye munguva pfupi yapfuura kukwira kwemitengo kwakataurwa muna 2007 na2008 apo hupfumi hwenyika hwaipinda mudambudziko rehupfumi. PaUS$83 pabhareri, mitengo yemafuta pakutanga kwaMbudzi yakakwira kubva paavhareji yeUS$42 munaGunyana gore rapfuura.
Mhedzisiro paIndasitiri yeInki
Zviri pachena kuti kukanganisa kwacho kwakanyanya kuipa pavagadziri vependi nekudhinda inki, mitengo yezvinonyungudutsa yave 82% paavhareji kupfuura gore rapfuura, uye mitengo yeresini nezvimwe zvinhu zvine chekuita nazvo yakwira ne36%.
Mitengo yezvinonyungudutsa zvakawanda zvinoshandiswa neindasitiri iyi yakawedzera kaviri uye katatu, nemimwe mienzaniso mikuru iri n-butanol yakakwira kubva pa£750 patani kusvika pa£2,560 pagore. N-butyl acetate, methoxypropanol uye methoxypropyl acetate zvakaonawo mitengo yacho ichikwira kaviri kana katatu.
Mitengo yakakwira yakaonekwawo yemaresini nezvimwe zvinhu zvine chekuita nawo, semuenzaniso, mutengo wepakati we epoxy resin wakakwira ne124% munaGunyana 2021 zvichienzaniswa naGunyana 2020.
Kumwewo, mitengo yakawanda yependi yakakwirawo zvakanyanya nemitengo yeTiO2 yakakwira ne9% kupfuura gore rapfuura. Mumapakeji, mitengo yakakwira kune dzimwe nzvimbo, semuenzaniso, matin emarata mashanu akakwira ne10% uye nemitengo yemadhiramu yakakwira ne40% muna Gumiguru.
Kufanotaura kwakavimbika kwakaoma kuwana asi sezvo masangano mazhinji makuru ari kutarisira kuti mitengo yemafuta icharamba iri pamusoro peUS$70 pabhareri regore ra2022, zviratidzo zvinoratidza kuti mitengo yakakwira icharamba iripo.
Mitengo yemafuta kusvika pakati nepakati muna '22
Zvichakadaro, sekureva kweEnergy Information Administration (EIA) iri muUS, Short-Term Energy Outlook yayo yazvino inoratidza kuti kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta asina kuchekwa nemafuta kubva kunyika dzeOPEC+ neUSA kuchaita kuti zvinhu zvemafuta emvura pasi rose zviwedzere uye mitengo yemafuta asina kuchekwa iderere muna 2022.
Kushandiswa kwemafuta asina kuchekwa pasi rose kwapfuura kugadzirwa kwemafuta asina kuchekwa kwezvikamu zvishanu zvakatevedzana, kutanga muchikamu chechitatu chegore ra2020. Munguva iyi, zvinhu zviri mumafuta epeturu munyika dzeOECD zvakaderera ne424 miriyoni yemabara, kana 13%. Zvaitarisira kuti kudiwa kwemafuta asina kuchekwa pasi rose kuchapfuura kuwanikwa kwepasi rose kusvika pakupera kwegore, kuzobatsira mukuwedzerwa kwemari inowanikwa, uye kuchengetedza mutengo wemafuta asina kuchekwa weBrent uri pamusoro peUS$80 pabhareri kusvika muna Zvita 2021.
Zvakafanotaurwa neEIA ndezvekuti mafuta epasi rose achatanga kugadzirwa muna 2022, zvichikonzerwa nekuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta kubva kunyika dzeOPEC+ neUSA asi zvichideredza kukura kwemafuta epasi rose.
Kuchinja uku kungangoderedza kumanikidzwa pamutengo weBrent, uyo uchava avhareji yeUS$72 pabhareri mugore ra2022.
Mitengo yeBrent, iyo inoyera mafuta asina kucheneswa pasi rose, uye West Texas Intermediate (WTI), iyo inoyera mafuta asina kucheneswa muUS, yakakwira kubva payakadzikira muna Kubvumbi 2020 uye ikozvino yakwira pamusoro pehuwandu hweasati asvika denda.
Muna Gumiguru 2021, mutengo wemafuta asina kuchena eBrent waive US$84 pabhareri, uye mutengo weWTI waive US$81 pabhareri, inova ndiyo mitengo yepamusoro kubva muna Gumiguru 2014. EIA inofanotaura kuti mutengo weBrent uchadzikira kubva paavhareji yeUS$84 pabhareri muna Gumiguru 2021 kusvika kuUS$66 pabhareri muna Zvita 2022 uye mutengo weWTI uchadzikira kubva paavhareji yeUS$81 pabhareri kusvika kuUS$62 pabhareri munguva imwe chete.
Kuwanda kwemafuta asina kucheneswa, pasi rose nemuUSA, kwakaisa kumanikidzwa kwemitengo pazvibvumirano zvemafuta asina kucheneswa zvenguva pfupi yapfuura, nepo mitengo yezvibvumirano zvemafuta asina kucheneswa zvenguva refu yakaderera, zvichiratidza tarisiro yemusika wakaenzana muna 2022.
Nguva yekutumira: Gumiguru-31-2022
