YEKUTANGA UYE yekutanga kiyi chiratidzo kune avo vanoongorora mukana huwandu hwevanhu, iyo inosarudza saizi yeiyo yakazara inogadziriswa musika (TAM). Ndosaka makambani akakwezvwa kuChina nevatengi ivavo.
Pamusoro pehukuru hwakazara, kuumbwa kwezera rehuwandu, mihoro uye kuvandudzwa kwemisika yepasi-yakasimba uye isina-yakasimba yekupedzisira-yekushandisa, uye zvimwe zvinhu zvinokanganisa kudiwa kwepurasitiki resin.
Asi pakupedzisira, mushure mekuongorora zvese izvi zvinhu, chimweinogovanisa zvinodiwa nehuwandu hwevanhu kuverengaper capita demand, nhamba inokosha yekuenzanisa misika yakasiyana.
Vanoongorora nezvehuwandu hwevanhu vatanga kufunga patsva kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwevanhu uye vari kugumisa kuti huwandu hwepasi rose huchakwira nekukurumidza nekudzikira nekuda kwekuderera kwembereko muAfrica uye kushomeka kwembereko muChina nedzimwe nyika shoma dzingasazopora. Izvi zvinogona kusimudzira fungidziro dzemusika wepasi rose uye masimba.
Huwandu hwevanhu veChina hwakawedzera kubva pamamiriyoni 546 muna 1950 kusvika pabhiriyoni 1,43 muna 2020. Gwaro rekuti mwana mumwe chete ra1979-2015 rakaguma nekudzikira kwembereko, reshiyo yevarume/vakadzi yakatsveyama uye kuwanda kwevanhu, India yava kutora nzvimbo yeChina senyika ine vanhu vakawanda.
United Nations inotarisira kuti huwandu hwevanhu veChina huchadzika kusvika 1.26 bhiriyoni muna 2050 uye 767 miriyoni ne2100. Ava vari pasi 53 miriyoni uye 134 miriyoni, zvichiteerana, kubva pakutanga UN fungidziro.
Ongororo ichangoburwa nevanoongorora huwandu hwevanhu (Shanghai Academy of Sciences, Victoria University yeAustralia, nezvimwewo) vanobvunza fungidziro yehuwandu hwehuwandu hwekufungidzira uku uye vanotarisira kuti huwandu hweChina hunogona kudzikira kusvika pabhiriyoni 1.22 muna 2050 uye 525 miriyoni muna 2100.
Mibvunzo yenhamba dzekuzvarwa
Demographer Yi Fuxian paYunivhesiti yeWisconsin akabvunza fungidziro pamusoro pehuwandu hwazvino hweChinese uye nzira ingangoenda mberi. Akaongorora ruzivo rwevanhu vekuChina akawana mutsauko wakajeka uye unogara uchiitika, senge kusawirirana pakati pekuzvarwa kwakashumwa uye huwandu hwemishonga yekudzivirira vana inopihwa uye nekunyoresa kuzvikoro zvepuraimari.
Izvi zvinofanira kufanana, uye hazviiti. Vanoongorora vanoona kuti pane zvinokurudzira zvakasimba kuti hurumende dzematunhu dziwedzere ruzivo. Kuratidzira Razor yaOccam, tsananguro yakapusa ndeyekuti kuzvarwa hakuna kumboitika.
Yi anosimbisa kuti huwandu hweChina muna 2020 hwaive 1.29 bhiriyoni, kwete 1.42 bhiriyoni, iyo yakaderera inopfuura 130 miriyoni. Mamiriro ezvinhu akanyanya kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweChina uko injini yehupfumi yakamira. Yi akafungidzira kuti nemitengo yakaderera yembereko - 0.8 maringe nedanho rekutsiva re2.1 - huwandu hweChina huchadzika kusvika pabhiriyoni 1.10 muna 2050 uye 390 miriyoni muna 2100. Ziva kuti ane imwe yakatonyanya kufungidzira.
Takaona dzimwe fungidziro dzekuti huwandu hwevanhu vekuChina hunogona kudzikira nemamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu pane zviri kutaurwa pari zvino. China inoverengera ingangoita makumi mana muzana epasi rose epurasitiki resin kudiwa uye nekudaro, mamwe emangwana ane chekuita nehuwandu uye zvimwe zvinhu zvinopesvedzera pasi rose resin epurasitiki inoda masimba.
Kudiwa kweChina pari zvino pamunhu wega wega pari zvino kwakakwira zvichienzaniswa nehupfumi hwepamusoro, mhedzisiro yepurasitiki-yemukati yezvinhu zvakapedzwa kutengeswa kunze kwenyika uye basa reChina se "fekitori kupasi rose". Izvi zviri kuchinja.
Kusuma mascenarios
Tichifunga izvi, takaongorora dzimwe fungidziro dzaYi Fuxian uye takagadzira imwe mamiriro ane chekuita neramangwana rinogona kuitika rehuwandu hweChina uye mapurasitiki ekudiwa. Kune yedu yekutanga, isu tinoshandisa iyo 2024 UN fungidziro pahuwandu hweChina.
Iyi yazvino fungidziro yeUN yehuwandu hweChina yakadzokororwa zvichidzika kubva pane zvakamboongororwa. Isu takazoshandisa ichangoburwa ICIS Supply & Demand database fungidziro kusvika 2050.
Izvi zvinoratidza China per capita hombe resin kudiwa - acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) uye polyvinyl chloride (PVC) - inokwira kubva ingangoita 73kg muna 2020 kusvika 144kg muna 2050.
Isu takaongororawo nguva mushure me2050 uye tikafungidzira kuti per capita resins inoda yaizokwira kusvika pa150kg muma2060s tisati tasvika pakupera kwezana ramakore - kusvika 141kg muna 2100 - shanduko uye trajectory yakafanana neinokura hupfumi. Semuenzaniso, US per capita kudiwa kwemaresini aya kwakakwira pa101kg muna 2004.
Kune imwewo mamiriro ezvinhu, takafungidzira kuti 2020 huwandu hwaive 1.42 bhiriyoni, asi kuti huwandu hwekuzvara huchasvika pakati pekuzvarwa 0.75, zvichikonzera huwandu hwevanhu 2050 hwemabhiriyoni 1.15 uye 2100 huwandu hwe373 miriyoni. Isu takadaidza iyo mamiriro Dire Demographics.
Muchiitiko ichi, isu takafungawo kuti nekuda kwematambudziko ehupfumi, resin inodiwa ichakura kare uye pamwero wakaderera. Izvi zvinotemerwa neChina kuti haisi kutiza chinzvimbo chepakati nepakati kuenda kuhupfumi hwepamusoro.
Demographic dynamics inopa yakawandisa misoro yehupfumi. Mumamiriro ezvinhu aya, China inorasikirwa negoho rekugadzirwa kwepasirese nekuda kwedzimwe nyika danho rekusimudzira uye kusawirirana kwekutengeserana, zvichikonzera kuderera kweresin kudiwa kubva mumapurasitiki zviri pasi - zvine chekuita nehwaro kesi - zvakapedzwa kutengesa kunze kwenyika.
Isu tinofungidzira zvakare kuti chikamu chebasa chichawana sechikamu chehupfumi hweChinese. Zvakare, nyaya dzezvivakwa uye zvikwereti zvinoremedza simba rehupfumi kusvika kuma2030s. Kuchinja kwemaitiro kuri kuitika. Muchiitiko ichi, isu takatevedzera per capita resin kudiwa sekukwira kubva pa73kg muna 2020 kusvika pa101kg muna 2050 uye tichikwira pa104kg.
Migumisiro yezviitiko
Pasi peBase Case, maresin makuru anodiwa anokwira kubva pamamiriyoni zana nemakumi matatu nemazana matatu emamiriyoni ematani muna 2020 uye anotanga kukura mu2030s, asvika 188.6 miriyoni matani muna 2050. Mushure megore ra2050, kuderera kwehuwandu hwevanhu uye kushanduka kwemusika/kusimba kwehupfumi kunokanganisa mamirioni gumi nemasere. idanho rinoenderana nepre-2020 kudiwa.
Nekusatarisisa kwakawanda pamusoro pehuwandu uye kuderedzwa kwesimba rehupfumi pasi peiyo Dire Demographics mamiriro, kudiwa kweresin hombe kunokwira kubva pamamiriyoni zana nemakumi matatu nemazana matatu emamiriyoni ematani muna 2020 uye inotanga kukura muma2030s, ichisvika 116.2 miriyoni matani muna 2050.
Nehuwandu huri kuderera uye kushata kwesimba rehupfumi, kudiwa kunowira kusvika 38.7 miriyoni matani muna 2100, nhanho inoenderana nepre-2010 kudiwa.
Zvinoreva kuzvigutsa uye kutengeserana
Pane zvinorehwa neChina epurasitiki resin kuzvikwanira uye net kutengeserana chiyero. MuBase Case, China yakakura kugadzirwa resin inokwira kubva pa75.7 miriyoni matani muna 2020 kusvika 183.9 miriyoni matani muna 2050.
The Base Case inoratidza kuti China inoramba iri mutengi wemaresini makuru, asi mambure ayo ekunze anodonha kubva pa27.4 miriyoni matani muna 2020 kusvika 4.7 miriyoni matani muna 2050. Isu tinongotarisa nguva kusvika 2050.
Munguva yazvino, kupihwa kweresin kunowedzera sezvakarongwa sezvo China inovavarira kuzvigutsa. Asi panosvika ma2030s, kuwedzera kwehuwandu kunononoka mumusika wakawandisa wepasi rose uye kukwira kuri kuita kusawirirana kwekutengeserana.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, pasi peDire Demographics scenario, kugadzirwa kunopfuura kukwana uye nekutanga-2030s China inowana kuzviriritira mune idzi resin uye inobuda semutengesi kunze kunze kwematani 3.6 miriyoni muna 2035, 7.1 miriyoni matani muna 2040, 9.7 miriyoni tonnes kusvika 50.6 miriyoni 50.
Nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwevanhu uye kunetsa kwehupfumi, kuzvikwanira uye chinzvimbo chekutengesa kunze kwenyika chinosvikwa nekukurumidza asi "kunogadziriswa" kudzikamisa kusawirirana kwekutengeserana.
Ehe, isu takatora tarisiro yedemografia, ramangwana rekuderera uye kuderera kwembereko. "Demographics is destiny", sezvakataurwa nemuzivi wechiFrench wezana remakore rechi19 Auguste Comte. Asi magumo haana kuiswa mudombo. Iri ndiro ramangwana rinobvira.
Kune mamwe emangwana anogoneka, anosanganisira ayo ayo mazinga ekubereka anodzoreredzwa uye nyowani nyowani yehunyanzvi hwekuvandudza tekinoroji inosanganiswa kuwedzera goho nekudaro kukura kwehupfumi. Asi mamiriro arikuratidzwa pano anogona kubatsira makambani emakemikari kufunga nezvekusavimbika nenzira yakarongeka uye kuita sarudzo dzinobata ramangwana ravo - kuti vazonyora nyaya yavo.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-05-2025
