CHINOTAURA CHEKUTANGA uye chikuru kune avo vanoongorora mikana ihuwandu hwevanhu, izvo zvinosarudza hukuru hwemusika wese unogoneka kutengeswa (TAM). Ndosaka makambani akakwezvwa neChina nevatengi vese ivavo.
Kuwedzera pahukuru hwayo, huwandu hwezera revanhu, mari inowanikwa uye kukura kwemisika inogara kwenguva refu uye isingagari kwenguva refu, pamwe nezvimwe zvinhu zvinokanganisawo kudiwa kwepurasitiki.
Asi pakupedzisira, mushure mekuongorora zvinhu izvi zvose, chimweinogovanisa zvinodiwa nehuwandu hwevanhu kuti iverengekudiwa kwemunhu mumwe nemumwe, chinhu chakakosha pakuenzanisa misika yakasiyana.
Nyanzvi dzezvehuwandu hwevanhu dzakatanga kufunga patsva nezvekukura kwevanhu mune ramangwana uye dziri kugumisa kuti huwandu hwevanhu pasi rose huchawedzera nekukurumidza nekuda kwekuderera kwekubereka muAfrica uye kuderera kwekubereka muChina nedzimwe nyika shoma dzingasazombopora. Izvi zvinogona kukanganisa fungidziro yemusika wepasi rose uye shanduko.
Huwandu hwevanhu muChina hwakawedzera kubva pamamiriyoni mazana mashanu nemakumi mana nematanhatu muna 1950 kusvika pamamiriyoni zana nemakumi mana nematatu muna 2020. Mutemo wemwana mumwe chete wa1979-2015 wakaita kuti kubereka kuderera, huwandu hwevanhurume nevakadzi husashande zvakanaka uye huwandu hwevanhu huwedzere, India yava kutora China senyika ine vanhu vakawanda kupfuura dzimwe.
Sangano reUnited Nations rinotarisira kuti huwandu hwevanhu muChina huchadzikira kusvika pa1.26 bhiriyoni muna 2050 uye 767 miriyoni panosvika gore ra2100. Izvi zvadzikira ne53 miriyoni ne134 miriyoni, zvichiteerana, kubva pane zvakafungidzirwa neUN kare.
Ongororo dzichangoburwa dzakaitwa nevanoongorora huwandu hwevanhu (Shanghai Academy of Sciences, Victoria University of Australia, nezvimwewo) dzinopokana nepfungwa dzehuwandu hwevanhu dziri shure kwefungidziro idzi uye dzinotarisira kuti huwandu hwevanhu muChina hunogona kudzikira kusvika pa1.22 bhiriyoni muna 2050 uye 525 miriyoni muna 2100.
Mibvunzo pamusoro pehuwandu hwekuzvarwa
Nyanzvi yezvehuwandu hwevanhu Yi Fuxian paYunivhesiti yeWisconsin haana chokwadi nezvepfungwa dziripo pamusoro pehuwandu hwevanhu vekuChina uye mafambiro angangoitika. Akaongorora ruzivo rwevanhu vekuChina ndokuwana kusawirirana kwakajeka uye kwakawanda, kwakadai sekusawirirana pakati pekuzvarwa kwakataurwa nezvako nehuwandu hwemajekiseni evana anopiwa uye nekunyoresa kuchikoro chepuraimari.
Izvi zvinofanira kunge zvakafanana, uye hazvienderane. Vaongorori vanoona kuti kune zvikonzero zvakasimba zvekuti hurumende dzemunharaunda dziwedzere data. Tichifunga nezveRazor yaOccam, tsananguro iri nyore ndeyekuti kuberekwa kwevana hakuna kumbobvira kwaitika.
Yi anoti huwandu hwevanhu vekuChina muna 2020 hwaive 1.29 bhiriyoni, kwete 1.42 bhiriyoni, huwandu hushoma hwevanhu vanodarika mamiriyoni 130. Mamiriro ezvinhu aya akanyanya kuipa kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweChina uko hupfumi hwakamira. Yi akafungidzira kuti nehuwandu hwekubereka hushoma - 0.8 zvichienzaniswa nehuwandu hwekutsiva hwe2.1 - huwandu hwevanhu vekuChina huchadzikira kusvika pa1.10 bhiriyoni muna 2050 uye mamiriyoni 390 muna 2100. Cherechedza kuti ane imwe fungidziro isina tariro.
Takaona dzimwe fungidziro dzekuti huwandu hwevanhu vemuChina hunogona kunge huri pasi pemamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu pane zviri kutaurwa pari zvino. China ine inenge 40% yehuwandu hwevanhu pasi rose, uye nekudaro, mamwe maremangwana ane chekuita nehuwandu hwevanhu nezvimwe zvinhu zvinopesvedzera zvakanyanya kudiwa kwemaresin epurasitiki pasi rose.
Kudiwa kwemaresini eChina pari zvino kwakakwira zvakanyanya kana tichienzanisa nenyika dzakawanda dzakabudirira, zvichikonzerwa nehuwandu hwepurasitiki muzvinhu zvakagadzirwa kunze kwenyika uye basa reChina se "fekitori yepasi rose". Izvi zviri kuchinja.
Kutaura nezvezviitiko
Tichifunga izvi, takaongorora zvimwe zvezvaifungidzirwa naYi Fuxian uye takagadzira imwe nzira ine chekuita neramangwana rinogona kuenderana nehuwandu hwevanhu nepurasitiki muChina. Panyaya yedu yekutanga, tinoshandisa fungidziro dzeUN dza2024 pamusoro pehuwandu hwevanhu muChina.
Kufungidzira uku kweUN kwehuwandu hwevanhu muChina kwakagadziridzwa kubva pane zvakamboonekwa kare. Takabva tashandisa kufungidzira kweICIS Supply & Demand database kusvika muna 2050.
Izvi zvinoratidza kuti kudiwa kweChina per capita major resins - acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) uye polyvinyl chloride (PVC) - kuri kukwira kubva pa73kg muna 2020 kusvika pa144kg muna 2050.
Takaongororawo nguva yakatevera gore ra2050 uye takafungidzira kuti kudiwa kwemaresini pamunhu kwaizokwira zvakanyanya kusvika pa150kg muma2060 tisati tasvika pakupera kwezana remakore - kusvika pa141kg muna 2100 - shanduko uye nzira inowanzo shandiswa muhupfumi huri kukura. Semuenzaniso, kudiwa kwemaresini aya pamunhu mumwe nemumwe muUS kwakasvika pa101kg muna 2004.
Kune imwe nzira, takafungidzira kuti huwandu hwevanhu muna 2020 hwaive 1.42 bhiriyoni, asi huwandu hwekubereka huchave neavhareji yekuzvarwa kwevanhu 0.75, zvichikonzera huwandu hwevanhu muna 2050 hwe1.15 bhiriyoni uye huwandu hwevanhu 2100 hwe373 miriyoni. Takatumidza mamiriro acho ezvinhu kuti Dire Demographics.
Muchiitiko ichi, takafungawo kuti nekuda kwematambudziko ehupfumi, kudiwa kweresin kuchakura nekukurumidza uye padanho rakaderera. Izvi zvinotsigirwa nekuti China haisi kuzotiza mamiriro ayo ehupfumi hwepakati nepakati ichipinda muhupfumi hwakabudirira.
Kuchinja kwehuwandu hwevanhu kunopa matambudziko akawanda ehupfumi. Muchiitiko ichi, China inorasikirwa nemugove wezvigadzirwa zvepasi rose nekuda kwezvirongwa zvekuvandudza zvedzimwe nyika uye kusawirirana kwekutengeserana, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwekudiwa kwemaresini kubva muhuwandu hwepurasitiki hwakaderera - zvichienzaniswa nehukuru hwezvinhu zvakapedzwa kutengeswa kunze kwenyika.
Tinofungawo kuti chikamu chemabasa chichawana chikamu chehupfumi hweChina. Uyezve, nyaya dzepfuma nezvikwereti zvinokanganisa kushanduka kwehupfumi kusvika kuma2030. Shanduko dzezvivakwa dziri kuitika. Muchiitiko ichi, takaratidza kudiwa kweresin pamunhu mumwe nemumwe sekukwira kubva pa73kg muna 2020 kusvika pa101kg muna 2050 uye kusvika pa104kg.
Mhedzisiro yezviitiko
Pasi peBase Case, kudiwa kwemaresin makuru kunokwira kubva pamatani mamiriyoni 103.1 muna 2020 uye kunotanga kukura muma2030, kusvika pamatani mamiriyoni 188.6 muna 2050. Mushure megore ra2050, kudzikira kwehuwandu hwevanhu uye kuchinja kwemusika/hupfumi zvinokanganisa kudiwa, izvo zvinodzikira kusvika pamatani mamiriyoni 89.3 muna 2100. Iri danho rinoenderana nekudiwa kusati kwasvika gore ra2020.
Nekuda kwekusafara kwakanyanya pamusoro pehuwandu hwevanhu uye kudzikira kwehupfumi pasi peDire Demographics scenario, kudiwa kwemaresins makuru kunokwira kubva pamatani mamiriyoni 103.1 muna 2020 uye kunotanga kukura muma2030, kusvika pamatani mamiriyoni 116.2 muna 2050.
Nekudzikira kwehuwandu hwevanhu uye kushanduka kwehupfumi kwakashata, kudiwa kwezvirimwa kunoderera kusvika pamatani mamiriyoni 38.7 mugore ra2100, chiyero chinoenderana nekudiwa kwacho kusati kwasvika gore ra2010.
Zvinoreva kuzvigutsa uye kutengeserana
Pane zvazvinoreva pakuzvimiririra kwemaresin epurasitiki eChina uye kutengeserana kwayo kwakazara. MuBase Case, kugadzirwa kukuru kwemaresin muChina kunokwira kubva pamatani mamiriyoni 75.7 muna 2020 kusvika pamatani mamiriyoni 183.9 muna 2050.
Nyaya yeBase Case inoratidza kuti China ichiri kutenga maresin makuru, asi nzvimbo yayo yekupinza inodzikira kubva pamatani mamiriyoni 27.4 muna 2020 kusvika pamatani mamiriyoni 4.7 muna 2050. Tinongotarisa panguva iyoyo kusvika muna 2050.
Munguva pfupi iri kutevera, kuwanikwa kwemaresini kunoramba kuchienderera mberi sezvakarongwa neChina pakuzviriritira. Asi panosvika makore ekuma2030, kuwedzera kwesimba remagetsi kunoderera mumusika wepasi rose wakawandisa uye kusawirirana kwekutengeserana kuri kuwedzera.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, pasi peDire Demographics, kugadzirwa kwacho kwakakwana uye pakutanga kwema2030 China yave kukwanisa kuzviriritira nemaresins aya uye yave kubuda kunze kwenyika ine matani mamiriyoni 3.6 muna 2035, matani mamiriyoni 7.1 muna 2040, matani mamiriyoni 9.7 muna 2045 uye matani mamiriyoni 11.6 muna 2050.
Nekuwanda kwevanhu kwakashata uye mamiriro ehupfumi akaoma, kuzviriritira uye chinzvimbo chekutengesa kunze kwenyika zvinosvika nekukurumidza asi "zvinogoneka" kuderedza kusawirirana kwekutengeserana.
Ehe, takaongorora zvakadzama huwandu hwevanhu, remangwana rine kubereka kwakaderera uye kuri kuderera. "Huwandu hwevanhu imugumo", sezvakataurwa nemuzivi wechiFrench wemuzana remakore rechi19 Auguste Comte. Asi mugumo hausi wejecha. Iri izuva remangwana rinogona kuitika.
Kune mamwe maremangwana angangoitika, kusanganisira ayo huwandu hwekubereka hunodzoka uye mafungu matsva ehunyanzvi hwetekinoroji anobatana kuti awedzere kugadzirwa uye nekudaro kukura kwehupfumi. Asi mamiriro ezvinhu ataurwa pano anogona kubatsira makambani emakemikari kufunga nezvekusava nechokwadi nenzira yakarongeka uye kuita sarudzo dzinokanganisa ramangwana ravo - kuti vanyore nyaya yavo pachavo.
Nguva yekutumira: Chikunguru-05-2025
